This study aims to analyze the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on commercial diplomacy and the restructuring of global supply chains. It seeks to answer the central question of how emerging technologies-particularly AI-are reshaping the trade policy frameworks of states. Drawing on two theoretical approaches-Neofunctionalism and the International Political Economy of Technological Innovation-this article argues that AI is not merely a technological tool but a structural mechanism for global regulation, soft power projection, and geopolitical competition in international trade.

Core concepts such as commercial diplomacy, global supply chains, and technological governance are defined and examined in relation to AI. The paper investigates the influence of AI across four dimensions of commercial diplomacy: small and medium-sized enterprises, multinational corporations, trade-supporting institutions, and state-led trade diplomacy. Supported by comparative studies and empirical evidence, all four hypotheses of the study are confirmed, demonstrating the transformative role of AI in both trade policymaking and diplomatic structures.

In the policy analysis section, the article provides a set of tailored recommendations for Iran, including the development of a national AI-driven trade diplomacy strategy, empowering non-state trade institutions through AI tools, participating in global AI standard-setting processes, promoting multi-level digital diplomacy, and strengthening interdisciplinary foresight research. Ultimately, the article offers a comprehensive framework for analyzing the intersection of technology and diplomacy in the digital age.