Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1
International Relations, Faculty of Humanities, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
2
Associate Professor , International Relations Department, Faculty of Humanities, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.*
3
Assistant Professor, International Relations Department, Faculty of Humanities, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
Abstract
Turkey's foreign policy, as it enters the 21st century, has developed a dynamic and multifaceted framework that necessitates new analytical approaches for comprehensive understanding. This study aims to elucidate this dynamism by analyzing Turkey's proactive engagement during the 2022 Ukraine conflict through the lenses of the global swing state concept and the theory of complex adaptive systems. The central hypothesis posits that Turkey's swing behavior constitutes a calculated response to geopolitical imperatives, systemic pressures, and internal dynamics, all aimed at achieving strategic independence. Employing a qualitative methodology with a descriptive-analytical framework, this research involved data collection through extensive library studies. Turkey's actions were scrutinized using five key indicators of global swing states: geopolitics, economy, military, diplomacy, and smart power, as well as through the principles of systems theory. The findings indicate that Turkey assumed the role of a swing state during the Ukraine crisis by implementing a dual strategy that involved military support for Ukraine while simultaneously sustaining economic relations with Russia. By leveraging geopolitical tools (such as the Montreux Convention), economic initiatives (including energy corridors), and diplomatic efforts (notably the mediation of the grain agreement), Turkey successfully maintained its influence over both belligerent parties. This swing activism has transformed Turkey's position from that of a subordinate ally to a pivotal regulator within the international order. While this approach has facilitated the achievement of strategic independence, it has also introduced structural risks, including a credibility vacuum and the perception of Turkey as an unreliable ally.
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