نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
عنوان مقاله English
نویسنده English
The People's Republic of China, which pursued a cautious policy towards Afghanistan after the Taliban re-emerged due to reasons such as the security vacuum caused by the US withdrawal and the revival of the threat of extremism, has been faced with the question of what changes Beijing's strategy towards Afghanistan will face following the geopolitical developments resulting from the 12-day Iran-Israeli war and the redefinition of the balance of power in the region. This article, with a futures-oriented approach and utilizing the method of driver analysis and scenario writing, and using documentary study and content analysis of reliable sources and the views of experts, examines the results and interprets four possible scenarios within the framework of the theory of regional security complexes. Based on the two main drivers, namely the stability/instability of the Taliban in Afghanistan and the active/passive role of the US towards China, it has reached the hypothesis that Beijing's strategic interests towards the US will cause China to move from a policy of cautious cooperation towards active support and strategic proximity to the Taliban government. Findings: considering the scenarios of 1- Taliban consolidation and convergence with China; 2- Structural instability and increased extremism; 3- US return and new geopolitical competition; and 4- Regional power competition and multilateral play, Beijing will ultimately adopt a multi-layered and proactive strategy towards Afghanistan, abandoning a cautious policy, in order to maintain the stability of its western borders, secure energy interests, and prevent the influence of its western rivals in Central Asia.
کلیدواژهها English
